Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 4.335892 5.100448 5.946712 6.950962 8.108189 9.397814 10.941761
2025-08-10 2.928440 3.885383 5.062552 6.608504 8.575656 10.984604 14.146231
2025-08-17 2.069084 3.046636 4.362947 6.245654 8.846163 12.284625 17.142544
2025-08-24 1.585954 2.556314 3.968558 6.140030 9.352172 13.876455 20.663628
2025-08-31 1.259724 2.201816 3.670885 6.077692 9.855676 15.472796 24.338961
2025-09-07 1.082929 2.032676 3.605659 6.327881 10.823291 17.820161 29.345459
2025-09-14 0.908716 1.825565 3.433108 6.361680 11.430837 19.659947 33.753269
2025-09-21 0.769349 1.648065 3.273379 6.379102 11.993147 21.464436 38.269047
2025-09-28 0.656556 1.495256 3.127161 6.388482 12.526810 23.257792 42.926375
2025-10-05 0.626940 1.502843 3.280429 6.966771 14.138453 27.044346 51.329800
2025-10-12 0.564441 1.427039 3.255511 7.194172 15.119704 29.807232 58.188718
2025-10-19 0.511921 1.362090 3.240586 7.435208 16.148073 32.744415 65.616992
2025-10-26 0.444211 1.249716 3.111509 7.433148 16.720192 34.935192 71.971228
2025-11-02 0.368804 1.101250 2.877041 7.170833 16.731987 36.063554 76.449587
2025-11-09 0.300838 0.954881 2.619641 6.814522 16.494633 36.669255 79.965244
2025-11-16 0.257728 0.865361 2.482350 6.712344 16.792486 38.379619 85.831795
2025-11-23 0.223059 0.791118 2.369283 6.649023 17.165792 40.277021 92.245416
2025-11-30 0.207012 0.769476 2.390435 6.922199 18.349847 44.011702 102.818389
2025-12-07 0.183960 0.719348 2.324242 6.959461 18.973321 46.575524 111.103223
2025-12-14 0.163285 0.671511 2.255419 6.978577 19.553123 49.093088 119.498703
2025-12-21 0.144991 0.626859 2.187362 6.988833 20.110626 51.608889 128.099175
2025-12-28 0.145245 0.650459 2.331126 7.616480 22.325150 58.163453 146.322136
2026-01-04 0.135303 0.632655 2.342289 7.863188 23.568233 62.528709 159.864267